人口自适应回归预测模型与实证分析  

An Adaptive Regression Model of Population Prediction and Its Experiential Studying

作　　者：龚曙明[1] 欧阳资生[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院信息系,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2006年第3期278-282,共5页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：本文以人口自身传递应和人口政策调节效应为理论假设,提出了兼顾两种效应的人口自适应回归预测模型。与一般的自回模型AR(n)相比,自适应回归预测模型能更好地描述、解释和预测人口的发展变化,是一种优化的回归预测模型。Based on the suppose of population itself transfer effect and population policy adjust effect, attention was given to those two effects, and a adaptive population prediction model was advanced in this paper. Compared with common AR（n）model, our model is an optimum autoregressive one, which can be easy to describe, explain, and predict the process of potation development.

关 键 词：人口预测模型 自身传递效应 政策调节效应 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]