涠洲岛海域年极值风浪联合设计参数估计  

Design Parameter Estimation of Joint Extreme Significant Wave Height andWind Speed at Weizhoudao Observation Station

作　　者：董胜[1] 丛锦松[1,2] 余海静[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院 [2]第29届奥林匹克运动会组织委员会帆船委员会,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第3期489-492,476,共5页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579069)资助

摘　　要：将涠洲岛海洋站1961～1989年极值波高与风速的长期观测资料作为统计样本，基于二维皮尔逊Ⅲ型联合分布，估计了年极值有效波高与风速的联合出现概率。以导管架平台基底剪力计算为例，给出了相应的荷载设计组合，与单因素频率分析法相比，联合概率分布法所得百年一遇剪力值约降低18％，条件分布法所得百年一遇剪力值约降低12％。结果表明，考虑环境条件之间的相关性，可以合理降低荷载设计标准，从而减小海洋工程投资费用。Using the annual maximum wave heights and wind speeds at Weizhoudao Observation Stations from 1960 to 1989 as an example, this paper estimates the joint probabilities of extreme significant wave heights and wind speeds based on bi-variable Pearson type Ⅲ distribution. Design parameters combinations are presented for the computation of the jacket platform base shear. By compared with the frequency analysis method, the total base shear is reduced by about 18 % by the joint probability distribution method and by 12 % by the conditional probability distribution method, when the correlation between the environmental conditions is considered, the design load criterion can be reasonably lowered. The whole engineering investment will also be decreased in the construction of marine structures.

关 键 词：二维皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布 波高 风速 设计参数 剪力 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学]