辽宁短期气候变化的波动理论研究  

Research on fluctuation theory of short term climatic change in Liaoning Province

作　　者：顾节经[1] 顾群[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象台,沈阳110016 [2]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2006年第2期42-44,共3页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

摘　　要：通过近50a的资料分析得知，气候形成三大因子太阳辐射、大气环流和地理环境年际问的异常波动是引起短期气候变化的根本原因。也是气候灾害年诊断预测的物理依据。运用波动理论不仅能诊断当年的气候灾害，还能开展3～5a的气候趋势滚动预测。The analysis of recent 50 years data in Liaoning Province indicated that the short term climatic change resulted radically from three important factors of cliamtic formation, i. e. solar radiation, atmospheric circulation and annually abnormal fluctuation of geographical environment. Three important factors of climatic formation were also the physical basis of diagnosing and forecasting meteorological disaster years. Based on the fluctuation theory, we can not only diagnose the climate disaster during the studied year, but also forecast the trend of climate change in the following 3 - 5 years.

关 键 词：短期气候 波动理论 灾害诊断预测 理论研究 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TQ342.31[化学工程—化纤工业]