我国东南沿海高速城市化地区土地利用动态变化及趋势——以福建省晋江市为例  

A STUDY ON THE CHANGE AND TREND OF THE LAND USE IN THE FAST URBANIZATION AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA IN CHINA——A CASE OF JINJIANG CITY

作　　者：李刚[1] 陈莹[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳大学旅游与地理科学学院,中国辽宁沈阳110016 [2]南京大学城市与资源学系,中国江苏南京210093

出　　处：《经济地理》2006年第3期409-411,417,共4页Economic Geography

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新重要方向性项目(编号:KZCX3-SW-331)资助

摘　　要：受改革开放政策的影响,自1990年代以来福建省晋江市城市化快速发展,土地利用状况发生急剧变化,是我国东南沿海高速城市化地区的典型代表。研究晋江市土地利用变化特征并进行动态模拟,对于认识我国东南沿海高速城市化地区的土地利用发展方向具有重要意义。文章借助GIS空间分析工具,构建了晋江市1989-2001年土地利用变化图谱,研究土地利用状况的时空变化。并在此基础上,运用马尔可夫转移概率模型对研究区土地利用结构的时序演变进行预测。分析结果表明,研究时段内晋江市土地利用变化最显著的特征是耕地大量流转为建设用地,在当前驱动压力下,将来土地利用的格局将以高度城市化为特征。针对以晋江市为代表的东南沿海经济快速发展过程中的土地利用结构变化特征,提出了若干保护耕地的相应对策。Since the 1990s, the urbanization of Jinjiang city has developed rapidly and the land use changed dramatically under the influence of open and reform policies. Jinjiang city has been a typical representative of the fast urbanized area of coastal area in south - eastern China. It is meaningful to study the land use change and perform the dynamic simulation of Jinjiang city, so that we can discover the tendency of the land use change in the southeastern coastal of China. With the aid of GIS spatial analysis tool, it constitutes a series of Tupu models, which cover the spatio- temporally compound patterns of land use. Then the evolution tendency of land use in the future is simulated and predicted with Markov model in the study area. The results show that the shifting of cultivated land to constructive land is the remarkable feature of the land use change and the spatial pattern is obvious. This paper also draws a conclusion that the constructive land will predominate Jinjiang city in the future by Marcov model. According to the characteristics of land use configuration in Jinjiang, a case of south - eastern China, the article presents some countermeasure.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 动态模拟 马尔可夫链 晋江市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]