我国适度外汇储备的定量分析  

A Quantitative Analysis of China's Moderate Foreign Exchange Reserve

作　　者：温昭苏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学研究生部

出　　处：《黑龙江对外经贸》2006年第6期26-28,共3页Heilongjiang Foreign Economic Relations and Trade

摘　　要：长期以来我国拥有大规模的外汇储备规模,且这个储备量还在连年递增。我国是否真的需要如此巨大数额的外汇储备,如何评定当前储备规模的合理度,一直是我们关注的焦点。本文运用修正的Agarwal模型,自1994年以来的宏观经济数据推导出较为适度的估计值,同时对比期间真实储备值,得出2001年后我国实际的外汇储备严重偏离估计值的结论。Our country possesses large amount of foreign exchange reserve, which is growing increasingly. Is it necessary for us to hold such huge reserve？ How to evaluate the appropriate size of foreign exchange reserve？ They are still at issue. By using a modified Agarwal Model, the writer draws a conclusion from comparing the estimates derive from c datum since 1994 to the real reserve, that is that the real foreign exchange reserve in our country has heavily deviated from the estimates.

关 键 词：AGARWAL模型 适度外汇储备 偿债性储备 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]