近116年江淮梅雨异常及其环流特征分析  

Analysis of Meiyu Characteristics and General Circulation Over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in Recent 116 Years

作　　者：毛文书[1,2] 王谦谦[1] 葛旭明[2] 景艳 杜宜翠 曹艳艳[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,210044 [2]四川省绵阳市气象局 [3]四川省甘孜州气象局 [4]浙江省宁波市气象局

出　　处：《气象》2006年第6期84-90,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点课题"江淮梅雨的年际和年代际变化规律及其机制研究"(402330037);973"我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究"项目(2004CB418300)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用江淮地区1885—2000年近116a梅雨特征量资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,采用谐波分析、最大熵谱分析、小波分析、合成分析等方法讨论了江淮梅雨特征量的年际-年代际变化特征及梅雨异常的环流特征。结果表明:江淮梅雨特征量存在显著的年际和年代际变化特征。入梅日期、出梅日期、梅雨期长度呈显著上升的长期变化趋势,梅雨量和梅雨强度长期趋势变化不明显;梅雨特征量均存在多时间尺度的振荡周期,入梅日期具有准24a、准5a和准3a的显著周期;出梅日期具有准35a、准22a和准5a的显著周期;梅雨量具有准40a、准15a、准9a和准3a的显著周期。丰梅年南亚高压中心强度和西太平洋副热带高压增强。枯梅年则反之。On the basis of the Meiyu characters and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data from 1885 to 2000, The inter-annual and inter-decadal charaeteristics of Meiyu Characters were investigated in terms of harmonic analysis, maximum entropy spectrum analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis method and so on. The results show that there are prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of Meiyu characters. The tendencies of onset, end and length of Meiyu are increasing with remarkable long-term evolutions, but no evident trend for precipitation and intensity of Meiyu. There are different time scale oscillations for Meiyu characters, such as quasi-24-year, quasi-5-year and quasi-3-year periodic oscillations for onset of Meiyu and quasi-35-year, quasi-22-year, quasi-5-year＇s for end of Meiyu and quasi-40-year, quasi-15-year, quasi-9-year, quasi-3-year＇s for precipitation of Meiyu. South Asia high and western Pacific subtropical high are stronger in rich Meiyu years than those in poor Meiyu years over the Changjiang-Huaihe region during the Meiyu period.

关 键 词：梅雨谐波分析 小波分析 南亚高压 西太平洋副热带高压 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434