用动态时间序列周期分析预测模型作郑州汛期降水预报  

Method of making Precipitation Forecast in Flood Season in Zhengzhou by Utilizing the Dynamic Time Series Period Analysis and Prediction Model

作　　者：马体顺 李社宗[1] 赵海青[1] 吴德义[1] 王彦涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州市气象局,河南郑州450005

出　　处：《河南气象》2006年第2期36-37,共2页Meteorology Journal of Henan

摘　　要：动态时间序列周期分析预测模型是将多层递阶方法与逐步回归周期分析的基本原理相结合,可以有效地选取时间序列的各个隐含周期。利用所选取的隐含周期,可作更长时间的预测。本文以郑州汛期降水为样本,对该预测模型进行了应用及讨论。The Dynamic Time Series Period Analysis and Prediction Model combines the basic principle of the stepwise regression period analysis with the muhiplayer_transfer method, so that it can not only select every latent period of a time series effectively, but also take advantage of the selected latent periods to make a long time prediction. This paper tries to apply the model to the precipitation prediction of Zhengzhou in flood season I.

关 键 词：动态时间序列 周期分析 预测模型 汛期降水 

分 类 号：P456.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]