基于新产品开发的决策情势分析模型研究  

Model of Decision Circumstance Analysis on New Product Development

作　　者：周勇[1] 王其藩[2] 

机构地区：[1]济南大学管理学院,济南250022 [2]同济大学发展研究院,上海200430

出　　处：《管理科学》2006年第3期18-26,共9页Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：决策行为带来决策情势的演进,进而为企业进一步的行为选择提出了新挑战。在此演进过程中,需揭示随行为结果变动而引发的利害相关各方的行为变动趋向和力度,并在此基础上推测未来的行为变化。是否开发新产品与其预期效益以及实现的风险有关,也与产品开发成功的可能性有关,预期效益主要取决于未来市场的需求,而市场的需求取决于消费者的需要与选择。客户对产品的品质判断主要基于产品个性功能的判断,产品的共性功能和产品类别的选择与客户可支配收入的高低有关,而产品个性功能的判断则与客户的需求品位有关。复杂行为源自其内在的系统结构,系统动力学的模型模拟力求揭示复杂系统结构、功能与行为之间的互动演进关系,而判择变量作为一个嵌入变量可以实现其他方法与系统动力学模拟的结合,从而既体现时点状态的研判选择,又实现状态的动态递进。Decision behavior brings out the evolution of decision circumstance, and puts forward new challenges for further behavior choosing of enterprise. During the process of evolution, it is necessary to discover the behavior altering tendency and the strength of various associating aspects brought by the alteration of behavior result. Whether products are developed or not is not only involved with expected benefit and risks but also involved with possibilities of product development＇s success. The expected benefit is mainly determined by the future market demand, while the market demand is determined by wants and choices of consumers. The client＇ s judgment to a product＇s character is mainly based on the product＇s personal character. The common function and sort choice of product have relation with client＇s disposable income, while the personal function of product has relation with client＇s taste. Complex behavior initiated in its inherent architecture, the model of System Dynamics tries to explore the mutual evolving relations among complex system architecture, function and behaviors. Meanwhile, judging variant as an embedded variant can implement the combination of other methods and system dynamics, which indicates the judging choice of time point state, and realizes dynamic progression of state.

关 键 词：新产品 决策情势 关联因素 动力学机理 演进 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]