基于Semi-Markov的配电可靠性成本估计  

Reliability Cost Assessment in Distribution System Based on Semi-Markov Process

作　　者：董瑶[1] 熊俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]达州电业局,四川达州635000 [2]四川大学,四川成都610065

出　　处：《四川电力技术》2006年第3期4-8,11,共6页Sichuan Electric Power Technology

摘　　要：针对配电系统故障时间分布不确定的特点,提出了基于半马尔柯夫过程的可靠性成本评估通用方法。建立元件寿命、预防维修时间和修理时间服从任意分布的可靠性评估模型,引入用户停电损失函数研究系统在不完善预防维修情况下的停电损失;通过实例证明了该方法的正确性,显示出该方法对Homogenous Markov和Weibull Markov算法的兼容性、有效性,同时更清晰地反映了元件故障持续时间分布对系统可靠性经济指标的影响。A general method of reliability cost assessment in distribution system which is based on Semi- Markov process and aims at the uncertnty of failure duration distribution is presented, It gives a reliability assessment maid for element longevity, preventive maintenance and repair time submitting to a random distribution, introduces customer interruption damage function and gives a calculation method of interruption cost in imperfect maintenance; finally it offers a simple system to testify its correctness and validity, reveals that it is compatible with the Homogenous Markov and Weibull Markov model, and could tenet the effect of repair time on reliability cost indices dearly.

关 键 词：配电系统 可靠性 停电 Semi—Markov 成本估计 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]