天津市道路交通风险分析及其应用  

Road Traffic Risk Analysis and Its Application in Tianjin City

作　　者：陈庚[1] 刘茂[1] 李丽芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2006年第5期52-55,共4页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：针对天津市的道路交通情况,运用风险理论对引发交通事故的原因进行了分析和辨识。根据收集到的相关信息,运用灰色预测模型,对天津市的道路交通事故发生情况进行预测;对其结果进行了检验,发现未来天津市的道路交通事故的发生将呈上升趋势;且预测数值与实际情况吻合,说明灰色预测模型具有很好的适用性;针对风险辨识的结果提出简要的风险减缓措施,以减少交通事故的发生。Referring to the road traffic situation in Tianjin, the causation of traffic accidents is analyzed and reccgnized by the risk theory. The occurrence of traffic accidents in Tianjin is predicted by Gray Model （GM） according to the data collected. The results are verified. It is found that the occurrence of traffic accidents will increase in future. The predicted result complies with the real situation. It demonstrates that the GM has good feasibility. Based on the risk identification a brief risk reducing measure to lover the waffle accidents is proposed.

关 键 词：道路交通 风险分析 事故预测 风险减缓 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]