Backcasting情报学发展研究中应用的探讨——情报学未来发展的“场景”及路径选择  

Applications of Backcasting Method to Information Science--Studies Scenarios and Path Choice for the Future Development of Information Science

作　　者：于薇[1] 武夷山[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《图书情报工作》2006年第6期66-70,共5页Library and Information Service

基　　金：本文系国家自然科学基金资助项目"科学计量方法的传承与创新:理论探索与案例分析"(项目编号:70373055)研究成果之一

摘　　要：在介绍Backcasting方法的基础上,将这种方法首次应用到具有社会学属性的情报学研究中。按照Backcasting方法的实施步骤,对选定的三个情报学发展“场景”进行分析,预测其在2020年的发展状况,选择出最佳的“场景”方案,提出实现它的路径措施,以实现对未来具体时点情报学发展定位的研究。Based on the introduction of Backcasting approach, this paper applies this approach into the scenario building of the information science in 2020. According to the execution procedures of Backcasting approach, three scenarios for the development of information science towards 2020 are identified. Summarizing the status quo of the three aspects corresponding to the three scenarios, the paper shows how to choose the most probable scenario. Then some paths and measures for realizing this scenario are proposed.

关 键 词：BACKCASTING 场景 情报学 智能信息学 路径选择 实施步骤 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]