黄河堤防边坡稳定性的可靠度分析  

Reliability Analysis of the Dike Slope Stability of Yellow River

作　　者：赵寿刚[1] 杨小平[1] 兰雁[1] 吴然[2] 

机构地区：[1]黄委会黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003 [2]天津工程师范学院数理系,天津300222

出　　处：《建筑科学》2006年第3期36-39,共4页Building Science

基　　金：黄河水利科学研究院基金

摘　　要：为了更能准确地评价黄河堤防边坡的稳定性,对可靠度理论在黄河堤防边坡稳定性分析中的应用进行了研究;可靠度理论是建立在概率统计基础上的,充分考虑了土体抗剪强度参数c、φ值的变异性及其相关性等对边坡稳定的影响;利用编制的蒙特卡罗法边坡稳定可靠度分析程序进行了工程实例计算,得出的评价边坡稳定性的可靠指标比定值法得出的安全系数更能反映工程实际情况,具有极其重要的应用推广价值。In order to increasing the precision of evaluating the stability of the dike slope of Yellow River, the application of reliability theory in stability analysis of the dike slope of Yellow River was studied. As we know, the reliability theory is based on probability and statistics, and the effect of variability and relativity of shear strength parameters of soil, such as c and φ, on slope stability has been considered adequately in the study. Project example was analyzed with the program of reliability analysis of the slope stability based on MonteCarlo method. Analysis of example shows that reliability indexes of evaluating the slope stability are better than safety coefficients of the fixed value method in reflecting the practical situation of project, thus it will have very important value in application and extending.

关 键 词：黄河堤防 边坡稳定性 可靠度 分布规律 变异性 相关性 

分 类 号：TU311.2[建筑科学—结构工程]