租赁还是购置:个人住房投资的时机选择问题  

Rent or buy: A research of the timing choice problem for individual real estate

作　　者：蔡晓钰[1] 陈忠[1] 蔡晓东[2] 刘志刚[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学管理学院 [2]北京广播电视大学,北京100081 [3]上海交通大学成人教育学院,上海200030

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2006年第3期280-286,共7页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：高等学校博士点科研基金资助项目(20020248020)

摘　　要：已有实物期权框架下房地产投资方面的研究长期以开发商为建模对象,忽视了对个人房地产投资者的建模研究.本文在房地产价格随机性条件下对投资者住房租赁或购置投资决策问题进行了建模,并运用停时分析技术与动态规划方法求解了这一基于实物期权的模型,明确了投资决策中应当考虑的期权价值,并给出了最优停止决策的阈值及相关结论.同时对给出的结果做了比较静态分析,给出了数值结果,分析了结论所蕴含的诸多经济与政策含义.The existing literatures of real estate investment under real options＇ framework have been drawn attention to the modeling of the developers but not focused on the individual real estate investment. This paper models the renting-or-Buying problem under that the price of real estate is driven by geometric Brown motion （GBM）, and solves the problem through stopping time analysis and dynamic programming with a series of conclusions and explicit rule of investment. We simultaneously, make a comparative static analysis as well as sensibility analysis and numerical analysis for the results. Especially, we also investigate the policy implications of the model.

关 键 词：个人住房投资 租-买时机选择 停时 动态规划 

分 类 号：TP301.6[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]