电力系统可靠性原始参数的滚动预测和残差修正  

Rolling prediction and residual error revise of original reliability parameter of power system

作　　者：任震[1] 吴敏栋[1] 黄雯莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2006年第7期10-12,共3页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50337010)~~

摘　　要：可靠性原始参数的分析与确定是电力系统可靠性评估的基础。针对电力系统可靠性原始参数匮乏的情况,利用灰色系统小样本的特点,运用滚动预测对可靠性原始参数的预测进行残差检验,在考虑数据新陈代谢的同时又能减少计算量。并对滚动残差的变化规律作了分析,建立其单调区间的灰色预测模型,进行残差修正,补偿原有的预测数据,使预测值能更好地拟合原始数据。最后,通过实例计算和模型精度检验说明该方法有较高精度。The power system reliability evaluation is based on original reliability parameters. Because of the lack of original reliability parameters,the grey theory with its special feature for the small sample book is applied. Using the rolling prediction,residual errors of the prediction for original reliability parameters are checked,considering the data metabolism and reducing the calculation at the same time. The changing rule of rolling residual errors is analyzed and the model of their monotone interval is set up to revise the residual error and compensate the original prediction. It makes predictions match the original data better. The example calculation and the model accuracy check show its comoarativelv high accuracv.

关 键 词：可靠性参数 滚动预测 残差修正 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]