中国资本外逃规模的重新估算:1982—2004  

Re-estimate of China′s Capital Flight:1982-2004

作　　者：黄彤华[1] 王振全[2] 汪寿阳[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]北京石油化工学院经济管理学院,北京102617 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《管理评论》2006年第6期11-19,共9页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(70471021)。

摘　　要：本文首先对资本外逃的定义和估算方法进行讨论,然后用经过贸易信贷和进出口伪报调整的卡丁顿法和调整的世行法来估算我国短期资本外逃额和资本外逃总额,其中使用我国经香港的转口贸易调整进出口伪报。估算结果表明,以往估算进出口贸易伪报对转口贸易的处理存在较大的缺陷;我国短期资本外逃占资本外逃总额的很大一部分,1994年以后出口低报是我国资本外逃的主要渠道。Definitions of capital flight are discussed firstly in this paper. The Cuddington-method and the World Bank-method are modified with the trade credit reflected in BOP and trade mis-invoicing un-reflected in BOP to estimate the short-term and total scale of capital flight from China respectively. Trade mis-invoicing are adjusted with the transit trade through Hong Kong. The results show that short-term flight accounts for a large percentage of the total capital flight. Export under-invoicing is the main channel of capital flight in China after 1994,which indicates that there is limitation in the former dealing of the transit-trade in estimation of mis-invoicing.

关 键 词：资本外逃 进出口伪报 转口贸易 贸易信贷 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]