亚洲四国汇率风险与贸易——远期外汇市场的作用  

Exchange Rate Risk and Trade in Asian Four Countries——The Role of Forward Markets

作　　者：郑恺[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会主义市场经济研究中心

出　　处：《亚太经济》2006年第4期23-28,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：本文基于对上世纪90年代至2005年的四个亚洲国家与美国间双边出口贸易数据的实证结果比较,采用VAR方法证明了存在一个成熟有效的远期外汇市场可以帮助出口企业规避汇率风险。最后,引用泰国案例,实证说明为了确保远期外汇市场能够提供准确的汇率价格信号,政府不应过度干预该市场。with the wake of collapse of the Bretton Woods System, a lot of inks have been spilled over on the effects of forward markets on trade, Since 1970s, most of theoretical and empirical research has concluded that forward markets can help to hedge the exchange rate risk. Through an empirical study on four Asian countries, this paper proved that efficient forward markets do reduce the shocks of exchange rate variability. Finally, with the case study of Thailand, the paper illustrated that to offer the accurate price signals of exchange rate, government should not intervene the forward markets too often.

关 键 词：实际汇率波动 对外贸易 远期外汇市场 VAR分析 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]