两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践  

Theory of Two Valid Forecasting Method and its Usage in Practice

作　　者：王维新[1] 林燕燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学机电学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《农机化研究》2006年第4期86-87,共2页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

摘　　要：预算实际上是一种建模,即根据过去和现在已有的信息建立一个从过去引伸到未来的模型。而时序分析法和灰色系统理论是两种有效的预测方法。为此,介绍了这两种预测方法的原理,并预测了新疆兵团的农机情况。其结果表明:未来10年,新疆农机总动力和投入将会有较大幅度的增长,而农业机械化程度将趋于最高值。Time series analyses and Gray system theory are two valid methods for forecasting. In this paper, the theories of the two methods were introduced in detail, as well; they were used in forecasting for farming machines of Xinjiang. The result shows that the total power will increase in large range, but machines degree will be saturated.

关 键 词：农业基础科学 预测方法 分析 灰色序列 时间序列 农业机械 

分 类 号：S23[农业科学—农业机械化工程]