有共因失效的系统可靠性的GO法分析  

System reliability analysis with common cause failures using the GO methodology

作　　者：沈祖培[1] 唐辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第6期829-832,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：研究在风险评价中应用GO法进行含有共因失效的系统可靠性定量分析方法。应用M arkov过程理论,导出了可修部件共因失效概率的近似计算公式,利用GO法即可直接计算系统状态概率,提出了有共因失效的可修系统状态概率定量分析的GO法算法,并应用于三取二系统和外电源备用系统的共因失效分析。结果表明:共因失效对系统可靠性有很大影响,而GO法算法是进行系统共因失效分析的有效而实用的方法。A quantitative analysis method was developed to analyze system reliability with common cause failures by the GO methodology for probability risk assessment. Approximate formulas were derived for the common cause failure probability of repairable components using the Markov model. The system state probability was then directly calculated using the GO methodology. The GO algorithm was then used to analyze the repairable system state probability with common cause failures in two out of three systems and an offsite power standby system. The results show that the common cause failure greatly affects system reliability and that the GO algorithm can effectively analyze systems with common cause failures.

关 键 词：可靠性 共因失效 GO法 可修系统 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]