证据推理法在C^4ISR系统可靠性评价中的应用  

ER Method and its Application to Reliability Evaluation of C^4ISR System

作　　者：胡鹏[1] 曾熠[1] 袁卫卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2006年第6期51-55,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：武器装备预研基金资助项目(514060203030KG01)

摘　　要：首先参考外军NATO COBP阐述了不确定性处理在C4ISR系统评价中的重要性,鉴于ER方法的先进思想,介绍了ER(Ev iden tia l R eason ing)方法在不确定条件下的基本评价框架,并对ER方法和AHP方法,D-S证据理论以及模糊综合评价方法进行了比较综合,针对我军C4ISR系统可靠性评价中的数据不完备等实际问题,初步应用此方法进行评价,对决策人员有一定的参考意义。Firstly referring to NATO COBP of foreign military,the article describes the importance of uncertainty in evaluation of C^4ISR system, secondly introduces base frame of the ER （Evidential Reasoning） mehtod under uncertainty due to its advanced thought,thirdly compares ER method with AHP method,D-S evidence theory and fuzzy synthesis method. At last,due to lack of data of our military the article applies the method to the reliability assessment of C^4ISR system and achieves some significant results for decision-maker.

关 键 词：C^4ISR系统 可靠性评价 不确定性 证据推理法 

分 类 号：TJ768.4[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]