关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义  

The Temporal Variation of LURR in Kanto and Other Regions in Japan and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：尹祥础[1] 陈学忠[1] 宋治平[1] 王裕仓[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,国家地震局地球物理研究所

出　　处：《中国地震》1996年第3期331-334,共4页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金;国家地震局八五攻关重点项目

摘　　要：计算分析了日本关东、和歌山及兵库地区的加卸载响应比（ｙ）的变化。关东地区近年来所有Ｍ≥６的７个地震及１９９５年１月１７日神户地震，在地震前的一段时间里其ｙ值均显著高于１。这说明加卸载响应比方法也适用于日本的地震预测。和歌山地区近年来的ｙ值接近于１，而关东地区的ｙ值则显著高于１已达２年。据此预测：未来１—２年内，关东地区（或其紧邻地区）有发生６级左右地震的可能，而和歌山地区这种可能性则很小。The temporal variation of LURR (y) for Kanto, Wakayama and Hugo regions in Japan has been calculated and analized. The LURR (y) values are higher than 1 significantly before the occurence of all earthquakes with magnitude M≥6 in Kanto region during the recent two decades and the Kobe earthquake (1995-01-17). These results suggest that LURR theory could be available for Japan. Recently the y value for Wakayama region is near l, while y value is larger remarkably than 1 near two years for Kanto. According to these results, it is predicted that an earthquake with magnitude about 6 could occurred inone or two years for Kanto region or its adjacent regions, but little possible for Wakayama region.

关 键 词：加卸载响应比 地震预测 关东地区 时间变化 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]