容纳不同异常持续时间的多参量综合预报模型  

SYNTHETIC PREDICTION MODEL WITH MULTIPLE PARAMETERS CONTAINING DIFFERENT ANOMALY LASTING TIMES

作　　者：戴英华[1] 孙佩卿[1] 刘永强[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,中国石家庄050021 [2]河北机电学院,中国石家庄050000

出　　处：《地震》1996年第4期329-336,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：地震联合基金资助课题(93101)

摘　　要：现有的多数综合模型,大多忽略了各种异常在震前所显示不同的持续时间。本文针对各前兆在时间轴上的不均匀,由可容纳不同异常持续时间的动态系统模型,依据适合于不可逆过程的ARMA参量预测模型,以华北北部区域为例,探讨了进行未来强震危险性的预测的途径。最后,对影响预测精度的因素进行了分析和讨论。For most existing synthetic models, the different lasting times of various precursors appeared before strong earthquakes have been not considered. In this paper, considering the temporal non-homogeneity of various precursors, a dynamic system model containing different anomaly lasting times has been established based on ARMA parameter prediction model, which is suitable to the nonreversible process; and taking North China area as an example, the authors explored the prediction way for future seismic hazard. Finally, the factors affecting the prediction precision have been analyzed and discussed.

关 键 词：异常持续时间 综合预报模型 参量 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]