干旱期水资源系统供水风险指标适用性分析  

Analysis on the applicability of water-supply risk indexes for water resources system during drought period

作　　者：方红远 程吉林 陈平 黄红虎 周建康 蔡守华 花金祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学,江苏扬州225009 [2]山东省水利勘测设计院,山东济南250013

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2006年第4期1-5,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50479030);江苏省高校自然科学基金项目(04KJB570170)

摘　　要：阐述了水资源规划与管理研究领域目前较常用的干旱期水资源系统供水风险特征体系的主要表征指标,并对这些指标在供水风险计算中的适用性进行了分析;通过分析并结合实例研究,得出几点结论:在水资源系统供水可靠性计算时,应根据研究问题的性质选择合适的计算时段尺度以及任一时段相应于供水破坏状态的临界需水量;供水破坏恢复能力用系统处于供水破坏状态的时间长短来衡量是合适的;从水资源系统干旱期运行管理目标和特征方面看,供水系统易损性用单一时段破坏深度表达要比用系统运行分析期内的总缺水量、平均缺水量以及总缺水量与总需水量比值等表示要合理。The.key indexes commonly used to express characteristics of water-supply performance of water resources-system during drought were described,and their applicability for water-supply risk assessment was analyzed. According to the results from research on the real system operation,some valuable conclusions are obtained. It can be briefed that the suitable time-period scale and critical water-demand should be taken for evaluating the reliability of water-supply system; the number of successive water-deficiency periods may be used for analyzing the resilience; expressing the vulnerability of water supply by the water shortage of single time-period is more ra- tional than the total water-deficiency, average water-deficiency and the ratio of total water-deficiency to total water-demand and so on.

关 键 词：干旱期 供水 风险指标 适用性分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]