HLAFS资料在短期降水、气温MOS预报方法中的应用  

Application of HLAFS Information in MOS Forecast for Precipitation and Temperature

作　　者：吴爱敏[1] 郭江勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所

出　　处：《干旱气象》2006年第2期45-48,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省气象局雷达资料的应用与开发项目"新一代天气雷达在强对流天气中的应用"(2006RA-5)资助

摘　　要：通过对HLAFS资料建立的5～9月夏半年气温、降水方程中所选的因子进行统计整理，找出使用频率最高的因子。气温方程中所选的因子，24h气温预报方程中以24h前的因子多；而48h预报方程中多选24h后的因子，实况因子选中的几率大，与预报员的思路一致。降水方程中，因子辐散风选中的最多，其次为Q矢量散度和涡度。利用“1999．7．4”庆阳大到暴雨个例，对方程中使用最多因子的实时场和预报场进行了分析，所选因子有较明确的物理意义，为以后MOS预报降水因子的选取提供了参考依据。The chosen factors in the temperature and precipitation equations established using HLAFS information in May to September are concluded in order to find out the factors used most frequently. Results show that factors chosen in the temperature forecasting equation for 24 hours are mainly before 24 hours, while in that for 48 hours, the factors are mainly after 24 hours, and the factors in real time are chosen in large probability, which is consistent with forecaster＇s; in precipitation forecasting equations, the first chosen factor is the divergence wind, and then the divergence and vorticity of Q vector. The heavy storm case in Qingyang on 4 July 1999 was used to analyze the real time and forecasting fields using most factors in forecasting equation, and the chosen factors have clear physical meaning, which provides reference basis for selecting precipitation factors in MOS forecast.

关 键 词：因子统计 结果分析 时空特征 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]