飞行器被雷达发现概率的计算方法研究  

Research on the Approach for Calculating the Probability of Detecting an Aircraft by Radar System

作　　者：王旭[1] 宋笔锋[1] 郭晓辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2006年第6期130-134,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：航空基础科学基金(01A53008)

摘　　要：给出了飞行器遭遇多雷达探测系统时被发现概率的计算方法。首先根据飞行器的RCS(RadarCross Section)模型、飞行航路、雷达系统的特征参数以及坐标,计算出各个分雷达对飞行器的探测次数以及各次探测的状态参数,进一步计算出各次瞬时探测概率。累积各次瞬时探测概率,计算出各个分雷达的发现概率。最后,根据数据融合准则,计算出多雷达探测系统对飞行器的发现概率。该方法充分考虑不同方位飞行器的RCS不同这一特点,比固定RCS的方法更加接近实战情况;用累积发现概率取代传统的瞬时探测概率,更能反映飞行器在整个航路上遭受探测的情况;把多个雷达视为一个探测系统,更适合于现代雷达探测系统的发展方向。实际算例表明该方法是有效和可行的。The purpose of this paper is calculating the detection probability of an aircraft traveling near an opponent muhi-radar system. Based on the aircraft RCS （Badar Cross Section） model, flight mute, radar character parameter and locations, detection times of sub-radars and detection state paraneters are calculated. Further more; the instantaneous detection probabilities of each radar are given. Then, the accumulated detection probability is calculated. At last, multi-radar system detection probability is obtained. The method here takes into account the aircraft RCS changing with the different detection attitude; this is more precise thsn the method which considers the RCS as constant. The accumulated detection probability is used to replace the traditional instantaneous detection probability; so the result get here is the probability of the whole flight process. Taking muhi-nadar as a detection system is more suitable for the further development of radar. The numerical result shows that the method is effective and feasible.

关 键 词：探测概率 发现概率 飞行器RCS 多雷达探测系统 

分 类 号：V221[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]