基于幂律退化轨道的小样本性能可靠性评定  

Small Sampling Reliability Evaluation Based on Power Law Degradation Model

作　　者：张永强[1] 刘琦 周经伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2006年第3期115-118,共4页Aeronautical Computing Technique

摘　　要：结合航空航天领域高可靠、长寿命产品试验小子样的特点,运用性能退化可靠性理论和Bayes方法,对系统可靠性的统计推断方法进行了研究。首先对基于Bayes方法幂律退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究,然后结合随机变量函数的分布的计算,推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式。在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性。In this paper, combined with the characteristic that high -reliability and long -life aviation and aerospace product＇s field test is a small sampling and based on Bayesian method and performance degradation theory, the reliability evaluation method is built. First, the performance degradation parameter＇s calculation model based on Bayes method is present, and the parameter＇s posterior distribution is described. Then by the calculation of distribution for the random variable＇s function, the point and low confidence calculation formula for reliability evaluation are presented. Specially, an example is given to show the validity of this method.

关 键 词：性能退化 BAYES分析 可靠性 小子样 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]