温度对我国禽流感传播影响的时空模式分析  

Spatial and temporal analysis of the effects of temperature on the spread of avian influenza

作　　者：李静[1] 王靖飞[1] 吴春艳[1] 杨艳涛[1] 吉增涛[1] 王洪斌[2] 李曦[1] 符芳[1] 崔尚金[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院哈尔滨兽医研究所动物疫病诊断与流行病学研究中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]东北农业大学动物医学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国预防兽医学报》2006年第4期408-411,共4页Chinese Journal of Preventive Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：黑龙江省科技攻关项目"高致病禽流感防制技术研究"资助

摘　　要：为研究温度对禽流感传播的影响,本文根据禽流感传播最适温度6℃～16℃确立了风险分析标准,以中国各个气象站的各月平均气温为基础数据,运用本实验室二次开发的地理信息系统软件绘制了风险图。研究结果显示风险区域随时间变化而转移,其时空模式为:1～5月,风险区域从南向北迁移;6～8月,除青藏高原外,全国基本处于低风险;9～12月,从北向南迁移。其时空转移规律与2004年第一季度的禽流感疫情扩散趋势基本吻合。To study the influences of temperature on the spread of avian influenza, a risk assessment standard was established according to the most favorable temperature for spreading of avian influenza, which was 6 ℃ to 16 ℃. Then the risk maps were drawn according to this standard on the map of China with EpiGeolnfo, a geographic information system software developed in our laboratory. The results showed that the high risk areas were under change during the whole year, which moved from south to north in Jan to May. From Jun to Aug, most areas of China were at a lower risk with Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exceptions. The high risk areas moved from north to south in Sep to Dec. The spatial and temporal characters of high risk areas had certain correlations with the avian influenza events in the 2004 AIV season in China.

关 键 词：禽流感 传播 风险评估 GIS 月平均气温 

分 类 号：S852.65[农业科学—基础兽医学]