影响国际石油价格变动的主要因素  

Key Factors Affecting Global Oil Price Fluctuations

作　　者：马瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2006年第6期26-29,共4页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：按照供求定价的基本原理,通过构建石油价格变动模型,认为影响石油价格变动的因素包括:两期经济总量变动值的一阶差分、相邻两期库存变动值的一阶差分、前一期石油价格的一阶差分以及外生冲击的变化。其中,经济变动是决定油价变动的主要因素,而库存变动和以政治因素、自然因素、技术进步为代表的外生变量只能在一定时期内影响石油价格走势,不能作为判断石油价格变化的依据。同时,比照1970-2005年国际原油价格变动和世界经济(GNP)运行的实际情况,对模型的结论进行了直观检验和进一步解释。In the paper, an oil price changing model has been built to study the key factors which influence the international oil price. By correlating the international oil price issued by British Petroleum (BP) with the real situation of the global economy from 1970 to 2005, it has been found that the factors causing the variation of oil price include the first-order difference of the economical variation from one period to another, the first-order difference of the inventory change from one period to another, the first-order difference of the oil price of the last period, and the external impacts. Among them, the economical variation is the major factor to determine the long-term variation of oil price; and the external factors such as the inventory change, political factor, natural disaster, and technology improvement etc. can only influence the short- term trend of the oil price, and therefore can not be used to predict the long-term trend of the oil price.

关 键 词：国际石油价格 供求关系 GNP 模型 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]