外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性——基于中国统计数据的实证检验  

Inflation Effect of Foreign Exchange Reserve Increase and the Effectiveness of Monetary Sterilization Policy

作　　者：方先明[1] 裴平[1] 张谊浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2006年第7期13-21,共9页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：为研究中国外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性,本文基于货币数量论的理论分析框架,借鉴相关文献,结合基本国情,参照和修正Kumhof(2004)的理论模型,进而构建起自己的理论模型。通过对2001年第1季度至2005年第2季度的统计数据进行实证检验,本文发现:2001年后,中国的外汇储备增加具有明显的通货膨胀效应;中国人民银行的货币冲销政策在总体上是有效的,但在货币冲销弹性等方面还不尽如人意。基于此,论文还提出了从实证检验结果得到的几点重要启示。The paper intends to discover the inflation effect of foreign exchange reserve increase and the effectiveness of monetary sterilization policy in China. Based on the quantitative monetary theory and China＇s reality, by using relevant literatures for reference, the paper establishes a special theory model by modifying and developing the model of Kumhof （2004）. The empirical testing through China＇s seasonal data during the period of 2001-2005 shows that the increase of foreign exchange reserve results in an obvious inflation effect, and the monetary sterilization policy of the central hank is effective on the whole, but the elasticity of monetary sterihzation policy is not good enough. Finally, some implications are drawn from the test result.

关 键 词：外汇储备增加 通货膨胀效应 货币冲销政策 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F822.5F224