水资源约束下北京地区2004—2020年土地利用变化情景模拟研究  

Research for Scenarios Simulation of Urban Land Use Change in Beijing by System Dynamic Model under Water Restriction from 2004 to 2020

作　　者：王双[1] 何春阳[1] 潘耀忠[1] 杨明川[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2006年第4期535-544,共10页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40501001)

摘　　要：利用系统动力学(System Dynam ics,SD)的原理和方法,发展了水资源约束下的城市土地利用情景变化SD模型。基于北京1980—2003年土地利用变化过程,构建了水资源约束下北京市城镇建设用地情景变化SD模型,对2004—2020年北京市城镇建设用地的变化进行了模拟研究。结果表明,该模型具有一定的有效性,有助于正确理解自然资源对城市发展和土地利用变化的深远影响。模型模拟结果显示,2004—2020年无约束情景下建设用地年均增长量为40.42～63.38km 2,建设用地占总面积的22%～25%;约束情景下年均增长量为21.21～51.3km 2,建设用地占总面积的20%～24%,远低于无约束情景;水资源强约束情景下建设用地的扩张速度仅为弱约束情景的37.6%,为无约束情景C的33%。可见,随着北京城市化进程的加剧和经济的进一步发展,水资源对北京区域发展的制约作用越来越明显,对土地系统的影响也将更为直观和深刻。Modelling scenarios of land use change under natural resources restriction in typical regions are helpful and significant in investigating the mechanism between land use and natural resources and processing the land use allocation under the resource security.A system dynamic （System Dynamics,SD）model under water restriction aiming at simulating urban land use change is developed in this paper. The model studies different ＂what-if＂ scenarios of urban land use change which are controlled by the restricted water resource,along with other elements,such as population,economy and technology advancement.In addition,the model is applied in Beijing.The accuracy assessment with the historical data in Beijing from 1980 to 2003 indicates that this SD model is available to understand the restriction of water resource to land use change and social development.The scenarios simulation of urban land use in Beijing from 2004 to 2020 suggests that natural resources exert a strong influence on land use change of the region,leading to severe shortage of natural resources.The results indicate that water resource confines the enlargement of urban land use to some extent.The normal increment without water restriction is 40.42- 63.38km^2, under water restriction is 21.21-51.30km^2. The total urban land use of the former to the whole area is 22%-25% and that of the latter,20%-24%,indicating that restricted scenario is far lower than that without restriction.Especially the average increment rate of the ferventrestricted scenario is only 21.21km^2,that is 37.6% of the weak-restricted scenario and 33% of the rapid-developing scenario without water restriction.Moreover, it needs to point out that the less the amount of water resource is,the more significant the influence of water resource on land use change.With the speedup of urbanization and the further economic development in Beijing, the limitation of water resources to Beijing＇s development is becoming more and more obvious.

关 键 词：水资源约束 土地系统变化 仿真模拟 北京地区 建设用地 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]