Study on Formation Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall Within the Meiyu Along the Mid-Lower Yangtze River and Theories and Methods of Their Detection and Prediction  

作　　者：倪允琪 周秀骥 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2006年第2期191-208,共18页

基　　金：Supported by the Project of State Key Basic Research Development Program: Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China (G1998040906-12)

摘　　要：As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program： Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows： 1） development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2） construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3） the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLYB）. The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4） proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5） investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system＇s 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6） development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin （HRB） in 2003.As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program： Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows： 1） development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2） construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3） the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLYB）. The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4） proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5） investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system＇s 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6） development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin （HRB） in 2003.

关 键 词：Meiyu front mechanism predictive theory 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]