股评建议对投资者买卖倾向的影响  

Recommendations′ Effect on the Trading Tendency

作　　者：徐谡[1] 方立兵[1] 曾勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学管理学院,成都610054

出　　处：《管理评论》2006年第7期18-22,共5页Management Review

基　　金：科技部软科学项目资助(2003DGS2B022);中国科学院国际合作重点项目资助(GJHZ0515)。

摘　　要：本文设计了买卖倾向模型,以成都某证券营业部所有投资者的买卖交易记录为样本,比较研究了牛熊市行情下股票推荐前后的走势及投资者的买卖倾向。股评建议分别来自于2000年、2003年《中国证券报》的相关栏目。主要结论有:首先,我国的股评家具有明显的“信息驱动型”特征,发布的股评建议及时性较差;其次,熊市行情下,股价在建议发布之后呈显著的下降趋势,所推荐的股票没有投资价值,牛市行情下股价没有显著变化;再次,股评对大户投资者的买卖倾向不具影响力;最后,2000年的小户投资者明显受到股评建议的影响,但2003年没有明显表现。结论部分结合我国股评行业的发展经历,提出了一些意见和建议。This paper builds a model to analyze investors′ tendency, respectively in bull and bear market, of buying or selling the stocks recommended by Chinese Security Daily in 2000 and 2003. Trading records are from a brokerage in Chengdu. We conclude that: firstly, Chinese stock analysts are characteristic of 'information based style,' and their recommendations are not as timely as news; secondly, recommended stocks fall significantly in bear market, but change not obviously in bull market; thirdly, recommendations have no significant effect on large investors; and fourthly, results show that small investors were significantly influenced in 2000, but it was not so in 2003. In the conclusion part we give some suggestions, which are based on the past development of China′s stock recommendation.

关 键 词：股评建议 买卖倾向 处置效应 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]