天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨  

RESEARCHES ON RISK EVALUATION MODELS OF NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY DOWNSTREAM MARKET

作　　者：刘毅军[1] 李松玲[2] 徐小辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学 [2]中国石油大学 [3]中国石油新疆油田公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2006年第7期136-138,共3页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司石油科技中青年创新基金资助(编号:2002CX33)。

摘　　要：随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成,天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段,建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现,而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上,综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论,建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型,并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重,建立起完整的市场风险评价模型,可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。As China's natural gas trunkline networks are formed gradually, the downstream market of natural gas industry is being developed promptly, which necessitates the establishment of risk warming system. Risk evaluation model is one of the basic works of the system. The risk evaluation model of natural gas industry down stream market was established, via application of analytical hierarchy process and grey system theory. This was done on the basis of risk evaluation index system of downstream regional market of natural gas industry chain. Then, an integrated market risk evaluation model was set up by taking the proportion of regional gas consumption in national gross gas consumption as a weight. It can then be taken as a reference when to evaluate the integrated market risk of natural gas downstream market.

关 键 词：天然气 市场 风险分析 指标 评价 数学模型 层次分析法 灰色系统 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]