湘南雨季结束日期的长期预报方法研究  

Long-term prediction method of end-date of pluvial period in southern part of Hunan Province

作　　者：郑金陵[1] 朱承山 柏青华 谭小菲 蒋卫德 林镜榆[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学计算机及信息工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]湖南省欧阳海灌区管理局,湖南耒阳421836 [3]河海大学水资源及环境学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2006年第4期59-61,共3页Water Resources Protection

摘　　要：应用水电站水情长期数值预报的思路和方法，对湘南雨季结束日期的长期预报进行研究。即在逐步回归方法的基础上，对所选取的因子进行优化筛选，从而使预报的结果与实测值最为接近。根据湘南气候特点，应用这一方法，一般预报误差只有1-2d，说明此为一个行之有效的方法。According to the thought and way of long-term numerical prediction of water regimes at hydropower stations, prediction of the end-date of the pluvial period in the southern part of Hunan Province was studied. Based on the method of stepwise regression and the optimization of parameters, the difference between the predicted results and the field data was minimized. With the climate in the southern part of Hunan Province taken into account, the end-date of the pluvial period was studied by using this method. Results show that the difference between the predicted value and the real value is only one or two days, which means that the method is practical and effective.

关 键 词：雨季结束日期 水电站水情预报 水文长期预报 湖南南部 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]