黑龙江省小麦叶枯性病害预测方法初探  

THE PRELIMINAY STUDY ON THE PREDICTION METOD OF WHEAT LEAF BLIGHT IN HEILONGJIANG

作　　者：李宏宇[1] 刘惕若[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学植物科技学院

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》1996年第4期111-118,共8页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

摘　　要：基于多年的调查资料，利用全过程流行速率模拟叶枯性病害流行动态，同时筛选出四个主效因子，并用四个主效因子进行几种预测方法的比较，结果是以回归预测准确率最高并建立了蜡熟期病指的回归预测式：Ｙ＝－２３．８６０２＋１１．０３４６ｘ１＋０．６１７５ｘ２－６．３７８６ｘ３－０．Based on the historical data,leaf blight woudenuc trend was simulated with apparent infection rate.Meanwhile,some prediction method was with four screened, regressional equaion of disease index at wax the best.Then a established with four screened factors:Y=-23.8602+11.0346X1+0.6175X2-6.3786X30.1263X4

关 键 词：小麦 叶枯性病害 预测 回归法 

分 类 号：S435.121.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]