基于清洁发展机制的中国碳市场潜力分析  

China's Carbon Market based on Clean Development Mechanism

作　　者：余慧超[1] 王礼茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

出　　处：《资源科学》2006年第4期125-130,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(编号:KZCX1-SW-01-18);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70473103)

摘　　要：全球气候变化是当今世界关注的环境问题。与全球气候变暖紧密相连的国际条约《京都议定书》一直以来被世人所关注。而清洁发展机制(简称CDM)是《京都议定书》所建立的以成本有效的方式在全球范围内实施温室气体减排的3种灵活机制之一。它是发达国家与发展中国家基于项目的合作形式。推行该机制不仅可减少发达国家在国内实施碳减排的高额成本,又可促进发展中国家获得有益于可持续发展的先进技术和急需资金。被认为是一种“双赢”政策。该文从中国CDM项目市场占全球份额的角度,在假设2010年所有非附件Ⅰ国家CDM项目实施率为70%的情景下,分析得出2010年中国基于清洁发展机制开发碳市场的规模是0.525×108tC,相应的碳市场潜力为8.306×108美元(美元以2000年价计)。同时认为:可再生能源发电、城市生活垃圾处理处置、造林与再造林领域是中国基于清洁发展机制开发碳市场的主要领域。The global climate change is very important environmental problem. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol （UNFCCC1997）, a milestone in global efforts to protect the environment and achieve sustainable development, marked for the fist time that government accepted legally binding constraints on their greenhouse gas emissions. The Protocol also broke new ground with its innovative cooperative mechanisms, aimed at ensuring global cost effectiveness in curbing these emissions. As it does not matter to climate where emission reductions are achieved, there is a sound economic argument for achieving them where they are at least costly. Clean Development Mechanism （CDM）, a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol,contained in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, allows government or private entities in Annex 1 countries to implement emission reduction projects in Non-Annex 1 countries and receive credit in form of ＂certified emission reductions,＂ or CERs,which they may count against their national reduction targets. The CDM strive to promote sustainable development in developing countries, while allowing developed countries to contribute to the goal of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Thus, the basic principle of CDM is that all parties involved benefit from the mechanism： the Annex 1 countries emitter receives credits for the CHG emission reductions, the owner of the CDM project receives a contribution to project finance, and the host country receives benefits related to national sustainable development objectives. This paper analyzes the scale and potentials of China＇ s carbon market based on CDM according to the proportion of CDM projects in China. Under CDM suppose the projects will implement 70% in all Non-Annex 1 countries in 2010. It was concluded that the scale of carbon market based on CDM in China in 2010 will reach 0.525 ×10^8ton Carbon. Accordingly the potential of it will reach 8. 306 ×10^8 dollars approximitely. Meanwhile, this article puts forward that the following areas will be

关 键 词：清洁发展机制(CDM) 碳市场 潜力 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]