大坝洪水漫顶风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Dam Overtopping

作　　者：李清富[1] 龙少江[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《水力发电》2006年第7期20-22,30,共4页Water Power

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金资助项目(0311052000)

摘　　要：洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。Overtopping is one of major factors of dam failure, and overtopping risk analysis is one important part of dam risk assessment. The model for analyzing overtopping risk of dam is introduced in this paper, and the processing methods of indeterminacy of the parameters are discussed in detail. At the same time, some new methods are presented, the influence to the result of overtopping risk due to the indeterminacy of the enter flood volume and the flood protection ability of dams according to the design specifications are discussed, too.

关 键 词：大坝 洪水 失效概率 漫顶 溃坝 风险评估 

分 类 号：TV122.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F069.9[经济管理—政治经济学]