我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析  被引量:66

The Coupling Relationship Between Summer Rainfall in China and Global Sea Surface Temperature

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作  者:陈文[1] 康丽华[1] 王玎[1] 

机构地区:[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京100080

出  处:《气候与环境研究》2006年第3期259-269,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基  金:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX3-SW-218;国家重点基础研究发展计划2004CB418303

摘  要:利用我国160个台站从1951~2000年的月降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR的全球海表温度(SST)资料,分析了我国夏季(6、7、8月)降水的时空变化特征及其与海温的相关,并应用奇异值分解(SVD)方法研究了我国夏季降水分布异常与海温变化的耦合关系。结果表明,我国夏季降水异常的雨型分布主要有3种,这些雨型的时间变化除了有明显的年际变化外,还存在显著的年代际变化。尤其是华北地区的降水从1965年左右开始减少,特别是大约1976年后有显著的减少。SVD分析揭示的我国夏季降水和全球海温异常的耦合关系表明,这种耦合关系最主要的时空变化特征表现在年代际变化的时间尺度上。我国华北和东北南部的夏季降水从1976年前后明显减少,与之显著关联的海温异常的关键区包括太平洋、印度洋以及热带和南大西洋。特别是热带中、东太平洋,印度洋,以及热带和南大西洋海水,从1976年前后也明显增暖。本研究揭示的华北持续干旱与印度洋和大西洋海温的年代际变化的耦合关系,在以往的研究中还未见到,因而有必要在今后的研究中加以重视。我国夏季降水和海温的耦合关系,还表现在长江中下游地区的降水异常与太平洋和大西洋海温异常的显著相关上。当南海和黑潮区域以及相邻的热带西太平洋海区海温为正异常时,热带和北大西洋海温也为正异常;而热带中、东太平洋海温为负异常时,长江中下游地区往往偏涝;反之,该地区则偏旱。By using the monthly rainfall in 160 stations of China and the sea surface temperature (SST) data from NCEP/NCAR, the spatial and temporal distributions of summer (JJA) rainfall and their correlations with SST are analyzed. The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in summer rainfall and the variations of SST has been studied with the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis. The results show that there are mainly three patterns in the anomalous distributions of summer rainfall. Their temporal variations present the time scales of not only interannual but also interdecadal. Especially, the rainfall in North China decreases from about 1965 and more obviously after 1976. The coupling relationship between the summer rainfall and global SST with SVD analysis presents a dominate time scales of interdecadal variation. The remarkable decrease of summer rainfall in North China and southern part of Northeast China after 1976 has been shown to be closely associated with the SST anomalies in Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and the tropical and south of Atlantic Ocean. Particularly, the SST becomes warmer obviously from 1976 in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean, nearly the whole Indian Ocean and the tropical and south of Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between persistent drought in North China and the interdecadal variations of SST in Indian and Atlantic Oceans has not been revealed before. The coupling relationship between the summer rainfall and SST has also been presented in the significant correlations between the rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. When the SST anomalies are positive in South China Sea, Kuroshio region and the neighboufing area, and in the tropical and north of Atlantic Ocean, and negative in the tropical central and castem Pacific Ocean, the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River tends to be above normal. In the reverse situation, the rainfall

关 键 词:夏季降水 海温 年际变化 年代际变化 

分 类 号:P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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