不确定度分析方法的改进及实际应用  

THE DEVELOPMENT OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHOD WITH AN APPLICATION

作　　者：孙崧青 张忠岳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国原子能科学研究院反应堆工程研究设计所

出　　处：《原子能科学技术》1996年第5期414-420,共7页Atomic Energy Science and Technology

摘　　要：以不确定度分析作为确定型程序分析的补充，可以获得更丰富更全面的信息。讨论了燃料元件确定型分析程序输出响应不确定度的分析方法及其具体应用，编制了ＩＦＵＡ程序，并用它分析了秦山核电厂稳态满功率运行情况下燃料元件输出响应的不确定度。分析结果表明：满功率运行２４０ｄ，＂平均棒＂的芯块中心温度低于１４７３Ｋ，裂变气体释放份额小于１％，裂变气体释放份额的不确定度主要来自线功率密度的不确定度。裂变气体释放份额和芯块中心温度都服从贝塔分布。Uncertainty analysis which can provide bountiful information of great importance, is now considered as an important complement to the calculation of deterministic code used in design and safety analysis for nuclear power plants. The work addresses the methodology aspect of the uncertainty analysis of a large deterministic fuel performance analysis code (FRAPCON-2) and problems in its application to engineering practice. Making the uncertainty analysis easier to use, a code package (IFUA) is proposed and applied to the analysis of the performance of the fuel rod of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant during normal operation. It is revealed that: the upper limits of cumulative fission gas fraction release (CFGFR) and fuel centerline temperature (FCT) are 1 % and lower than 1473 K, respectively; the most important contribution to CFGFR and FCT uncertainties comes from the uncertainty of linear heat generating rate; probability density functions of calculational outcomes of CFGFR and FCT are beta distributions.

关 键 词：不确定度 概率密度函数 资料元件 核燃料 

分 类 号：TL352[核科学技术—核技术及应用]