我国竞争性能源之间替代效应的分析  

Analysis of Substitutive Effect Between Competitive Energy Sources in China

作　　者：严奇[1] 何建敏[1] 郭建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096

出　　处：《动力工程》2006年第4期592-594,603,共4页Power Engineering

摘　　要：建立了向量自回归(VAR)技术的模型,通过脉冲响应函数分析,探讨了我国竞争性能源之间的替代效应。研究发现,煤炭和电力之间存在显著的替代效应,而其它竞争性能源形式之间不存在替代效应,并对这一结论做了解释。The substitutive effect between competitive energy sources in China is being studied with the help of impulse response functions and using a model constructed according to the vector auto-regression （VAR） technique. A remarkable substitutive effect is found to exist between electric power and coal but not between the other competitive energy sources. An explanation of this conclusion is provided. Fig 1 and refs 6.

关 键 词：能源工程 竞争性能源 脉冲响应函数 替代效应 电力短缺 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]