边际电价预测中的误差分析方法研究  

Research on the Method of Error Analysis in the Prediction of SMP

作　　者：赵军科[1] 李郁侠 秦美静[2] 姚鹏[1] 王亮[1] 王伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]西安建筑科技大学环境与市政工程学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2006年第2期187-190,共4页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(05JK266)

摘　　要：针对目前电价预测中误差分析方法繁多、各方法之间可比性差的现象进行分析,总结了电价预测中常用的各种误差分析方法的优缺点,并推荐采用一种新的误差分析方法即中值相对误差来评价各种电价预测方法的精度。实际算例结果表明,该分析方法合理且有效。With an aim at the various methods tion, this paper analyzes the poor comparable of error analysis in the current electric price predicphenomena among each method and summarizes the strong and weak points of error analysis methods of various kinds in the electric power price prediction. Also,a kind of new error analysis method, that is,the relative error of intermediate values is recommended and adopted to evaluate the accuracy of electric price prediction methods of various kinds. The real calculated results indicate that the analysis method is rational and effective. At the final of this article an example is given to prove the reasonable of this error analysis method.

关 键 词：误差分析 中值相对误差 电价预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]