供电企业风险指标体系及多级风险评估模型  

The Risk Index System and Multi-Level Risk Evaluation Model for Power Supply Companies

作　　者：张荣乾[1] 谭忠富[1] 王成文[1] 侯勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《电力学报》2006年第2期123-127,142,共6页Journal of Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70373017)(70571023);华北电力大学校内重大科研项目预研基金联合资助

摘　　要：市场环境下供电企业面临着各种各样的风险,风险需要进行量化分析,以便在此基础上进行有效的风险规避,这方面的研究工作在我国刚刚开始。本文针对供电企业的各种风险源,建立了一套风险分析指标体系。在此基础上,利用层次分析法与灰色理论构造了多级评估模型,以实现对供电企业各种风险的综合评价。通过算例分析,表明该方法对供电企业的风险评价具有较好的适用性。Power supply company faces various risks under market economy condition. The risks must be evaluated with data in order to evade them effectively. Research in this field has just begun in our country. We have established one set of analysis system regarding the risk sources for power supply company. With Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） and gray theory based on the system, we can make multi-level evaluation for power supply companies. This method can be proved to be very useful to risk evaluation through the example analysis.

关 键 词：风险评估 指标体系 多级模型 

分 类 号：F425[经济管理—产业经济]