2002—2005年T213数值降水预报产品分析检验  

Analyses and Verifications of T213 Rainfall Forecast from 2002 to 2005

作　　者：管成功[1] 王克敏 陈晓红[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心 [2]安徽省气象台

出　　处：《气象》2006年第8期70-76,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家气象中心自筹资金项目"全球中期数值预报系统改进与升级研发"资助

摘　　要：利用2002—2005年T213模式的降水预报值和全国400个标准测站的降水实况资料,采用客观降水检验方法,对T213数值降水预报产品的预报能力进行了分析检验。结果表明:降水预报TS评分和预报偏差B值均存在明显时空分布差异;各级降水中,小雨TS值最大、B值最小,夏季TS和B值均好于其它季节;中到大雨TS最高评分和最低B值均是长江中下游地区,其次是华南;暴雨TS评分各区较低,但华南、长江中下游地区和东北地区B值较小。这些地区T213降水预报对预报业务有较好的参考作用。T213降水预报对春季东北地区和华北的强雨(雪)、夏季长江中下游地区的梅雨、西部地区的华西秋雨等降水过程具有相当好的预报能力。Based on the objective rainfall verification methods, the forecasting abilities of the numerical precipitation products of T213 were analyzed and verified using numerical precipitation forecast products of T213 and rainfall observation data of 400 stations. The results show that obvious temporal-spatial characteristics exist in threat score （TS） and bias score （B） of the rainfall forecast. The light rainls TS is the largest and its B value is the smallest. The TS and the B value in summer is better than that in the other seasons. The highest TS and the lowest B value of the moderate and the heavy rain are both in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and then in South China. T213 rainfall forecast shows a good performance in heavy rain （snow） in Northeast and North China in spring, and in Meiyu period in the Yangtze River, and also in the autumn rainfall forecast in West China.

关 键 词：T213模式 TS评分 预报偏差 时空分布 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7