一种北上台风路径预报方法  

A Kind of Solution of Forecasting the Track of Typhoon Going Northward

作　　者：杨诚 于文革 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省丹东市气象局,118000

出　　处：《气象》2006年第8期88-91,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：根据气象台实际业务需要,对历年北上台风路径进行分析总结,从天气学角度分析了台风未来路径与对流层上层温度场(或厚度场)的关系,目的是解决北上台风路径预报问题,并对2005年9号台风“麦莎”做了检验,提出台风的趋暖运动是对流层上层增暖现象,对流层上层增温极值曲线是台风未来的移动路径。According to the meteorological observatory actual service need, it is necessary to summarize the track of typhoon going northward in all previous years and analyze the relation between the typhoon and temperature field （or thickness field） of the upper troposphere. The goal is to find out the solution of forecasting the track of typhoon going northward and make the test on typhoon Matsa in 2005, proposing that the typhoon＇s hastening the warm movement is caused by the phenomenon of getting warmer in the t upper troposphere, pointing out that the extreme value curve of the upper troposphere＇s hastening the warm is the track of typhoon in the future.

关 键 词：台风路径 预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6