中国人口劳动参与率与未来劳动力供给分析  

Analysis on Labor Force Participation Rate and Labor Supply in the Future in China

作　　者：王金营[1] 蔺丽莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北大学人口研究所,河北保定071002 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2006年第4期19-24,共6页Population Journal

摘　　要：对未来劳动力供给进行准确预测判断将有利于我们未来就业政策、现实人口政策和社会保障政策的科学制定,也是对未来人口与经济形势准确判定的依据,是一项非常重要的工作。在充分考虑人口老龄化、劳动参与率年龄模式变动以及受教育水平提高影响的基础上,对未来劳动供给进行预测。预测结果显示,如果不考虑65岁及以上人口的就业,到2016年将达到从业人员的高峰7.58亿,其后持续减少,到2050年前后减少到6.4亿;如果考虑65岁及以上人口的就业,我国的就业高峰将出现在2022年前后,到2045年以后,劳动力供给将大规模减少。届时劳动供养人口将会大大增加,这必须引起当代人在规划人口发展时的重视。It is help we make scientifically employment policy, realistic population policy and social security policy in future to judge to predict accurately for labor supply to go on as to future, the basis that population and economic situation judge accurately in the future too, it is a very important thing. In this paper predict labor supply to future basic on considering fully influence of population aging, changing of labor force participate in age mode and education level rise. If we don＇t consider employment of population 65 years old and the above, reach 75 800 million peak of employee by 2016, thereafter reduce continuously, reduce to 6 400 million by 2050; If we consider 65 yean old and the above population＇s employment, the employment peak of our country will reach by 2022, by 2045, the labor force supplies and reduces on a large scale. Labor dependency rate increases greatly when the time comes, this is to cause the thing that contemporary people must be paid attention to in planning people＇s development.

关 键 词：人口预测 人口老龄化 劳动参与率 劳动力供给 

分 类 号：F241.2[经济管理—劳动经济]