综合异常指数方法在华北地区地震短期预测中的应用研究  

Application of synthetic anomaly index method in short-term prediction of earthquake in North China

作　　者：平建军[1] 孙佩卿[1] 冯向东[1] 贾炯[1] 李满喜 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021 [2]河北省临城县地震台,河北临城054300

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2006年第2期40-45,共6页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA601B01-01-01)

摘　　要：在系统分析并筛选出华北地区地震频度、地震活动标度、mf值、调制比、b值、D值、η值、地震活动强度熵和地震活动时间熵等映震较好的9项测震学参数基础上,应用综合异常指数方法,分别计算了它们各自的地震异常指数时序值,进而合成得到华北地区测震学综合异常指数时序曲线,通过研究其地震短期异常特征,给出了华北地区ML≥5.8地震短期综合预测的判据指标,经R值评分检验表明,该指标具有较好的地震预测效能。Based on systematic analysis, nine seismometry parameters that response earthquakes well in North China are selected, which are seismic frequency, seismicity scale, mr-value, b-value, D-value, η-value, seismicity intensity entropy and seismicity time entropy. Using synthetic anomaly index method, we calculated their seismic anomaly index values separately and synthesized these values into a chronogenesis curve. After studying its short-term anomaly characteristics to earthquakes, the criterion index for ML≥5.8 earthquakes in North China is obtained. The R-value test indicts that it has good prediction effect.

关 键 词：华北地区 综合异常指数 地震短期预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]