一种新的集成预报法  

A NEW METHOD OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTING

作　　者：陈德群[1] 于波[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》1996年第4期470-472,共3页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

摘　　要：通过引入第一可信度和第二可信度两个概念，建立了一种新的适于我国各级台站使用的集成预报方法。在１９９０～１９９２年，曾被用来对８种独立的预报方法进行集成决策。By introducing two concepts first and second believable levels is proposed a new technique of ensemble forecasting that is applicable to all level stations in the country. It was used in 1990～1992 for decision making of 8 separate prediction methods that was submitted to the Hydrological Office, Yangtze Water Resources Committee.

关 键 词：集成预报 可信度 天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]