南海热带气旋风力的逐步回归分析及预报  

The Stepwise Regression Analysis and Prediction of the Wind Speed of Tropical Cyclone over South China Sea

作　　者：杨平章[1] 郭英琼[1] 张慧蝉 郭平 

机构地区：[1]中山大学大气科学系

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》1996年第1期123-128,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

摘　　要：选取具有天气学意义和物理意义的９个预报因子，采用逐步回归分析，建立了８４个统计预报方程，用于东南沿海１４个台站预报热带气旋影响的风速．根据统计样本外的１９８８年的资料作预报检验，结果表明所建立的一套统计预报方程是可以用于实际预报的．Nine synoptic avd physics factors are selected to establish 84 statistical forecasting equations by means of stepwise regression analysis. These equations have been used in the prediction of wind speed of the tropical cyclone by 14 stations located in coastal areas of south eastern China. Forecastins. verification by using of the data in 1988 that are not included in the statistical samples shows that the equations in the paper are applicable to practical prediction.

关 键 词：南海 热带气旋 逐步回归分析 预报 海洋 

分 类 号：P732.3[天文地球—海洋科学]