近40年西南地区的气候变化事实  

Climate Variation of Southwest China in Recent 40 Years

作　　者：马振锋[1] 彭骏[1] 高文良[1] 田宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610071 [2]四川省气候中心,四川成都610071

出　　处：《高原气象》2006年第4期633-642,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40375031);(KLME)开放基金项目(KJS0304);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2006-9);四川省气象局科技项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用西南地区(云南、贵州、重庆、四川、西藏)1961—2000年139个气象观测站常规地面观测资料年平均值,对西南地区近40年来气候的年际和年代际变化特征进行了分析。揭示了青藏高原、川西高原、云贵高原在20世纪后40年气温上升、降水增加、湿度增大趋势显著,而在四川盆地东北部和西南部的气温则存在明显的下降趋势,表明西南地区气候变化与全球变暖存在非同步性。通过对各气候要素年际和年代际变化序列的分离,得出了西南地区不同气候要素基本都存在明显的年际和年代际变化振荡周期,对这些气候要素存在的突变现象进行了检验,发现气温首先在青藏高原地区开始突变,然后是云贵高原区,最后是四川盆地、贵州东部丘陵区。其他气候要素的突变时间多数也是先从青藏高原开始。由此可见,西南地区气候要素在高海拔地区比低海拔地区突变时间为早,全球气温突变要比西南地区的气温突变要早。Using the annual mean surface observational data（1961--2000） at 139 stations in SW（Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet）, the character on interannual and interdecadal changes of climate is analyzed, thus revealed the distinct tendency of temperature rising, precipitation and relative humidity increasing over the Tibetan Plateau, western Sichuan highland and Yun-Gui Tableland at this period. However there is apparently decreasing trend of temperature in the Northeast and Southwest Sichuan Basin. Evidently, the climate change in the southwest area does not synchronize with global warming. Through analyzing the interannual and interdecadal changes of meteorological elements, we obtained the result that, basically, these elements all have the obvious oscillations on the interannual and interdecadal changes. And then these element＇s catastrophes are tested, the results indicate that the temperature catastrophe take place in the Tibetan Plateau first, and then Yun-Gui Tableland, last, Sichuan Basin and the hilly land of eastern Guizhou. Other elements start catastrophe generally from the Tibetan Plateau as well. Therefore, most of the factors in this region begin abruptness earlier in higher elevation than in lower. And global abrupt change of temperature occurs earlier than that of this region.

关 键 词：西南地区 山地气候 各气候要素 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]