华北区年高温日数区域平均方法及趋势分析  

The Regional Average Method of Yearly High Temperature Day Series in North China and Its Tendency Analysis

作　　者：张德宽[1] 姚华栋[1] 杨贤为[1] 廖要明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2006年第4期750-753,共4页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国短期气候预测系统加强研究项目(96-908-06-05-01)资助

摘　　要：利用华北地区33个代表站1961—2002年间的年高温日数序列,采用均生函数和最优子集回归法,设计出具有较强拟合能力和未来趋势预测的数理统计模型。该模型能较好地拟合历史实况,其信度达到了99%;也使用该模型做出华北地区2003—2005年3年的高温日数趋势预测,对2003年和2004年做出的趋势预测效果较好。Based on the data of yearly high temperature days at 33 stations in North China from 1961 to 2002, the regional averaged high temperature day series was established by optimum interpolation method. From the series, it can be seen that the year-to-year high temperature days in North China from 1961 to 1972 and from 1997 to 2002 were obviously more than normal, and the interannual variability in North China was obvoius during the two periods. On the other hand, the high temperature days from mid of 1970＇s to mid 1990＇s was less than average. The parttern designed by mean generating function method can preferably fit historic series and its confidence level has passed 99%. The high temperature days in 2003-- 2005 have been predicted using the pattern, it is found that the impact of tendency prediction in 2003 and 2004 is better.

关 键 词：华北区 高温FI数 区域平均 最优插值 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]