洪水资源利用系统风险分析方法与应用  

Risk Analysis Method of Floodwater Resource Utilization System and Its Application

作　　者：刘建卫[1] 许士国[1] 张柏良[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]吉林省白城市水利局,吉林白城137000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2006年第4期12-15,22,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50139020)

摘　　要：提出了洪水资源利用系统风险效益分析的一般流程,并以白城市水库、泡沼、湿地、草原等引蓄措施综合利用所形成的洪水资源利用系统为例,按照系统认识、风险识别、风险效益评价与优化决策四个步骤对各单元独立运用与系统综合运行进行了分析,最终得出当地洪水资源合理分配方案。This paper advanced the common flow chart of risks and benefits analysis on multi-kinds of measures composed floodwater resource utilization system to ensure it running safely in high effciency. Four parts included in the flowchart, firstly, the risk factors are made clear after fully understanding the floodwater resource utilization system. Secondly, the potential benefits and losses brought by different factors are calculated in different ways. At last, the optimize decision is made baed on the benefit and risk evaluation. According to that, analysis of floodwater resoure utilization system in Baicheng, which included swamp, reservoir and grassland and so on, was done. The result of optimal allocation was helpful to the management of floodwater resource utilizaton in Baicheng.

关 键 词：洪水资源利用系统 系统认识 风险识别 风险效益评价 优化决策 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]